Capital Gains Tax Exclusion Indexing Tool

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Capital Gains Tax Exclusion Indexing Tool

Inspired by a conversation on:

Moody's Talks - Inside Economics

Moody's Talks - Inside Economics

Speaking From All Hands Day

Host: Mark Zandi, Cris deRitis, Marisa DiNatale

Timestamp: 20:02 - 21:23

Listen to Episode • View Podcast • All Ideas from Moody's Talks - Inside Economics

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Direct Quote

"What we're proposing is to actually index the capital gains tax exclusion to inflation."

Market Gap

Homeowners are locked into their homes due to high capital gains taxes.

Many long-term homeowners, especially seniors, face substantial capital gains taxes when selling their homes, discouraging them from moving. This situation creates a 'lock-in' effect, where homeowners prefer to stay put rather than incur taxes, resulting in reduced mobility in the housing market. The current capital gains tax exclusion of $250,000 for singles and $500,000 for couples, set in 1997, has not kept pace with inflation. This lack of adjustment restricts many individuals from downsizing or selling their properties, exacerbating housing shortages and affecting market dynamics. As a result, younger families struggle to find starter homes, leading to broader economic implications as the housing market stagnates.

Summary

The proposed business idea is to develop a tool that assists in indexing the capital gains tax exclusion to inflation, effectively increasing the exclusion limits to $500,000 for singles and $1 million for couples. This tool would help homeowners calculate their potential tax liabilities based on current market values and inflation-adjusted limits, making it easier for them to make informed decisions about selling their homes. By lowering the tax burden on long-term homeowners, this tool could encourage greater mobility within the housing market, facilitating transactions that would benefit both sellers and buyers. The target audience for this tool includes financial advisors, real estate agents, and homeowners considering selling their properties, particularly seniors who are downsizing.

Categorization

Business Model
SaaS
Target Founder
Subject Matter Expert
Difficulty
Medium
Time to Revenue
3-6 months
Initial Investment
$1,000-$10,000

Potential MRR (18-24 months)

Conservative
$4,000 - $10,000 MRR
Moderate (Most Likely)
$10,000 - $25,000 MRR
Optimistic
$25,000 - $50,000 MRR

* Estimates assume solo founder/bootstrap scenario with competent execution

Scores

Clarity
8/10
Novelty
7/10
Feasibility
7/10
Market Potential
8/10
Evidence
7/10
Overall
7.4/10
Found on September 17, 2025 • Analyzed on September 17, 2025 6:52 PM

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2:34 PM

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