Options Trading Expectancy Calculator Tool

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Options Trading Expectancy Calculator Tool

Inspired by a conversation on:

Stock Market Options Trading

Stock Market Options Trading

164: Expectancy vs. Win Rate: What Really Matters

Host: Eric O'Rourke

Timestamp: 00:00:09 - 00:06:14

Listen to Episode • View Podcast • All Ideas from Stock Market Options Trading

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Feather Flow

Direct Quote

"Expectancy in trading is a way to measure how much you can expect to make or lose on average per trade over the long run."

Market Gap

Traders lack tools to effectively measure trading expectancy.

Many traders struggle to assess the viability of their trading strategies due to a lack of clear metrics that consider both win rates and the sizes of wins and losses. This often leads to misguided decisions based solely on win percentages, which can be misleading if the average loss significantly outweighs the average win. The problem is prevalent among options traders, who may find themselves relying on high win rates without understanding the essential context of expectancy, which combines these metrics into a single, actionable number. Without a proper calculator, traders may continue to employ ineffective strategies, resulting in financial losses and missed opportunities.

Summary

This business idea revolves around creating an online tool or software that calculates the expectancy of various trading strategies, especially focusing on options trading. The tool would allow users to input their trade data, including win rate, average win size, and average loss size, to generate an expectancy figure. Additional features could include visualizations of risk-reward ratios and comparisons of different strategies. This tool would serve traders looking to optimize their trading performance by providing them with a clearer understanding of their potential profitability. It could be marketed to both novice and experienced traders as an essential component of their trading toolkit.

Categorization

Business Model
SaaS
Target Founder
Technical
Difficulty
Medium
Time to Revenue
3-6 months
Initial Investment
$1,000-$10,000

Potential MRR (18-24 months)

Conservative
$2,000 - $5,000 MRR
Moderate (Most Likely)
$10,000 - $20,000 MRR
Optimistic
$40,000 - $80,000 MRR

* Estimates assume solo founder/bootstrap scenario with competent execution

Scores

Clarity
8/10
Novelty
7/10
Feasibility
6/10
Market Potential
8/10
Evidence
7/10
Overall
7/10
Found on September 29, 2025 • Analyzed on September 29, 2025 8:08 PM

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How should I validate this saas idea before building it?

2:34 PM

Great question! For a saas idea like this, I'd recommend starting with these validation steps:

  1. Customer interviews: Talk to Technical to understand their pain points
  2. MVP approach: Build a simple landing page to test demand
  3. Competitor analysis: Research existing solutions and identify gaps

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2:35 PM

Yes, and what about the technical implementation? Should I build this myself or hire a team?

2:36 PM

Based on your idea's complexity and 3-6 months, here's my recommendation:

Technical Strategy:

  • Start with no-code tools for rapid prototyping
  • Consider your technical background and available $1,000-$10,000
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I can help you create a detailed technical roadmap and resource allocation plan...

2:37 PM

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