Trend Following Performance Analysis Tool

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Trend Following Performance Analysis Tool

Inspired by a conversation on:

Top Traders Unplugged

Top Traders Unplugged

SI365: Design or Luck: Why Trend Following Results Diverge ft. Katy Kaminski

Host: Niels Kaastrup-Larsen

Timestamp: 12:01 - 12:34

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Feather Flow

Direct Quote

"If you look at any given year, you can have quite a bit of differences between how one manager performs and another based on idiosyncratic and different themes in the markets."

Market Gap

Investors struggle to understand performance differences among trend-following managers.

Investors in trend following often encounter significant performance dispersion among managers, making it challenging to understand the reasons behind these differences. In a landscape where systematic strategies are evolving, recognizing the impact of design choices, market conditions, and timing becomes essential. Current analytics tools may not adequately account for these factors, leading to potential misunderstandings about manager effectiveness and strategy viability. Without clear insights into performance drivers, investors may make uninformed decisions, misallocate capital, or become overly reliant on historical returns that do not guarantee future results.

Summary

Develop a performance analysis tool specifically designed for trend-following strategies that captures the nuances of various design choices made by managers. This tool would leverage data analytics to provide insights on how different variables like speed, asset allocation, and market conditions impact performance dispersion. By offering a clear visual representation of performance differences and the underlying factors contributing to them, investors can make more informed decisions. The target audience includes institutional investors, hedge funds, and financial advisors looking to optimize their trend-following strategies while understanding the complexities of the market landscape.

Categorization

Business Model
SaaS
Target Founder
Technical
Difficulty
High
Time to Revenue
6-12 months
Initial Investment
> $10,000

Potential MRR (18-24 months)

Conservative
$2,000 - $5,000 MRR
Moderate (Most Likely)
$10,000 - $20,000 MRR
Optimistic
$40,000 - $80,000 MRR

* Estimates assume solo founder/bootstrap scenario with competent execution

Scores

Clarity
8/10
Novelty
7/10
Feasibility
6/10
Market Potential
8/10
Evidence
7/10
Overall
7/10
Found on September 13, 2025 • Analyzed on September 13, 2025 5:12 AM

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How should I validate this saas idea before building it?

2:34 PM

Great question! For a saas idea like this, I'd recommend starting with these validation steps:

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2:35 PM

Yes, and what about the technical implementation? Should I build this myself or hire a team?

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